As we look forward to lots of clean energy promises of 2023, it’s a good idea to take stock of 2022 and make some predictions (or at least hopes) for the coming year. Here are our thoughts.
Oil & Gas: We saw record demand in 2022, while the war in Ukraine squeezed demands for global energy. According to Energy In Depth, 2022 was the highest production year for natural gas since pre-pandemic (2019) and expects oil production to follow suit in the coming year.
Our thoughts: Early in the Biden admin, we saw O&G approvals spike, followed by a drop in 2022. (Politico, 2022) We are watching the Alaska-based Willow project and others to see if the US can produce more domestic product and help ease global energy needs.
Solar & Wind: Should these be combined? No, probably not. But each of these sectors is benefitting immensely from the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which “provides $60 billion for clean energy manufacturing, including $30 billion for production tax credits to accelerate domestic manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing, and a $10 billion investment tax credit to manufacturing facilities that are building EVs and clean energy technology.” (CNBC, 2022)
Our thoughts: Dollars are alright, permits are more critical. As of September 2022, only 21% of planned clean energy projects had received approval. Before the most recent legislative session wrapped, Sen. Manchin’s permitting reform bill failed to pass the Senate (47-47 vote). Overhauling 50-year-old NEPA seems like it should have been a no-brainer bi-partisan win, but now it appears to be back in the mire. (More on this from Vox.) We’re watching to see if IRA dollars can mean change without this reform or if a chaotic congress can make change anything happen. Quick take–– if progress can't be made in a mostly unified (all-Dem chambers) Washington, reform is unlikely.
Nuclear: Amazing. But also more waiting. We saw fusion (as one firm puts it: a star in a bottle) become attainable, though not net energy positive. As for more familiar fission (the same type of energy that blossomed through the US in the 70s and 80s, there are headwinds and tailwinds. Nothing new has come about in a while, but many small scale reactors/companies are trying to get to market (Westinghouse [in Canada] and Oklo come to mind). For more in-depth info and power puns, Canary Media has an excellent overview of 2022.
Our thoughts: Fusion is not coming online for a few decades, though more advancements can be made. We will be watching to see if small scale reactors stay trapped in red tape or if the IRA and potential NEPA reform will push these zero-carbon energy sources to new heights. Meanwhile: Alaska DEC is seeking public comment on siting permits.
Hydrogen: According to IEA, “Hydrogen demand reached 94 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021, recovering to above pre-pandemic levels (91 Mt in 2019), and containing energy equal to about 2.5% of global final energy consumption.” Most of this is derived from fossil fuels, with only 1Mt coming from renewable sources.
Our thoughts: IEA goes on to posit that “by 2030 the production of low-emission hydrogen could reach 16-24 Mt per year” from electrolysis and carbon capture and storage. That’s not 2023, but that means advancements are on the horizon. Investments are flying and it’s definitely a space to watch in the clean energy arena, as long as it’s done right. (Politico, 2022) In the meantime, many hydrogen hubs are waiting for final investment decisions (FIDs).
Other musings:
· EVs and batteries will get a boon from the IRA.
· Chaos in Washington is good for no one (permitting reform), but here’s what’s happening.
· We might soon be eating lab-grown (climate-conscious?) meat?
· We may or may not see a huge uptick in offshore wind in the US.
